Unlicensed spectrum adds $62 Billion in annual Incremental Retail Sales Value to the U.S. economy according to a study led by CEA Sr. Director, Technology & Standards, Mike Bergman. In the above interview, filmed at the 2015 Wireless Symposium, Bergman discusses the resulting report and the one-and-a-half year study where CEA looked at 45 different categories of devices that use unlicensed spectrum and how CEA attributed incremental revenue to the wireless capability associated with the thousands of devices that spans those categories.

Bergmann makes interesting observations about the 2016, 600 MHz auction. He explains that CEA is closely looking at potential issues, such as  RF interference, impact on consumers who rely on off-air antennas for TV reception and the potential challenges of clearing enough spectrum in the right spots. That is, the amount of spectrum and the cost could vary wildly by market; particularly between urban and rural regions. Assuming all the moving parts synch up in this very complicated auction, Bergman points out that the auction will provide a definitive dollar value of that spectrum.

To License or Not to License; That Is the $62 Billion or More Question:

Bergmann is correct that the auction will assign a value to the spectrum at a given time. Given the continuing changes in technology and the ever-increasing demands for this public resource, the value of the spectrum, like any commodity, is bound to change over time. There is also an argument to be made that any money that flows into the government coffers will eventually be paid for by the consumer, as the entities that “win” the auctions will simply pass on their spectrum costs (to paraphrase President Reagan, businesses don’t pay spectrum auction fees, they just pass them on).

In its August 2014 report, Telecom Advisory Services, LLC reinforces CEA’s finding by suggesting that by 2017 unlicensed spectrum will “amount to at least $547.22 billion in economic surplus annually and $49.78 billion in contribution to the annual GDP.” As is pointed out in the introduction to that report, the author’s views were his own, but this study was funded by WifiForward, “an ad hoc, broad-based group of companies, organizations [e.g. CEA] and public sector institutions working to alleviate the WiFi spectrum crunch and to support making Wi-Fi even better by finding more unlicensed spectrum.”  Interestingly enough, this group includes organizations that are often combatants in the commercial world, such as Comcast, Google, Microsoft and Republic Wireless.

A similar group, the Dynamic Spectrum Alliance has members that literally span the spectrum and, in addition to commercial entities, includes non-profits, such as COSTECH, the Gigabit Libraries Network and MyDigitalBridge, that focus on bringing broadband to everyone, regardless of income or locale.

The policies that the Dynamic Spectrum Alliance advocate would effectively create a market for spectrum. Instead of a one-time valuation of spectrum like the aforementioned 600 MHz auction, the idea is to use technology (e.g. White Space-type approach) to create a more efficient and dynamic way to use spectrum, while maximizing its value. What makes this organization so interesting is that its leader, Executive Director Professor H. Sama Nwana, is a former Group Director of Spectrum Policy at UK regulator Ofcom, Britain’s version of the FCC. That this former regulator is advocating for a different way of managing spectrum is significant.

The professor will make the case for dynamic spectrum sharing of unlicensed frequencies in the Spectrum 2025 event in Washington D.C., February 4th and 5th. Hopefully, Congress and the President will be listening with an open mind, as spectrum policy is one area where there should be bipartisan agreement. As argued in a Viodi View article in November 2013, there is still a window for Congress to take a fresh and updated approach to spectrum policy.