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Is WiMAX Market success dependent on new Consumer Electronic (CE) devices? A Prescription for WiMAX Success

By Alan J. Weissberger, alan at viodi.com, www.viodi.com/weissberger/

During an April 18th telebriefing, the Yankee Group predicted a proliferation of WiMAX enabled CE devices in 2008-09. The hypothesis is that WiMAX device strategies aim to disrupt the status quo for service distribution- away from traditional CPE (modems, integrated adapters for notebook PCs) and into Consumer Electronics products (new gadgets). While low cost computing devices (e.g. $100 Computers) will be critical for emerging market economies, it is unclear whether integrated WiMAX will be chosen over current WiFi solutions.

The Yankee Group concluded that:

This author is still waiting for the WiMAX enabled tablet PC shown by Intel at the WCA Symposium earlier this year. He is skeptical about WiMAX replacing WiFi in CE devices as the latter technology has become so deeply entrenched and continues to ride the downward slope of the cost curve. He believes that breakthroughs in WiMAX enabled CE devices will be needed to replace WiFi.

For general WiMAX market thoughts, please see Opinion at the very end of this article.
In other WiMAX related developments:

Mobile WiMAX certification (by the WiMAX Forum) is pending, operators are interested in the performance of Mobile WiMAX in the real world.as well as business models and opportunities. While Mobile WiMAX products may not be certified yet, the market momentum is just too big to be ignored. At the 3GSM Conference in Barcelona:

But the tough work required to make WiMAX a success still lies ahead. Expectations have been set about WiMAX network performance, the ecosystem and business opportunities. To drive the success of the market, vendors will need to support these expectations. According to Peter Jarich of Current Analysis, this support will be driven from three fronts:

Opinion: This author is still skeptical that WiMAX will be the huge success many pundits predict. He believes that Fixed and Mobile WiMAX will find a home in the developing world economies where broadband infrastructure is lacking. In developed markets, he sees several nicheWiMAX markets: DSL fill-in, cellular and Metro WiFi backhaul, and (for SPRINT) 3G/4G overlay for video and high speed data services.

One response to “Is WiMAX Market success dependent on new Consumer Electronic (CE) devices? A Prescription for WiMAX Success”

  1. Jane Zweig Avatar

    Mobile Wi-MAX won’t be the nirvana that the “ecosystem” is expecting. I agree that in emerging economies where broadband penetration is low or non-existent, it might have a place. Getting price points to the point where it is affordable in these markets will be critical and challenging — especially until products scale. Frequencies aren’t harmonized thus making it more difficult for device vendors. It took Wi-FI and 3G nearly 5 years to scale to the point where products are affordable.

    Operator business models are unclear as are distribution channel models. Who will provide customer support of these products? What will be the billing or charging models. In emerging markets where prepay rules, how will this play out? These aren’t trivial matters yet appear to be unaddressed by the WiMAX ecosystem.

    In developed markets, broadband penetration is high or is growing. 3G is accelerating. So the available market is niche at best.

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