By Alan J. Weissberger, alan at viodi.com, www.viodi.com/weissberger/
During an April 18th telebriefing, the Yankee Group predicted a proliferation of WiMAX enabled CE devices in 2008-09. The hypothesis is that WiMAX device strategies aim to disrupt the status quo for service distribution- away from traditional CPE (modems, integrated adapters for notebook PCs) and into Consumer Electronics products (new gadgets). While low cost computing devices (e.g. $100 Computers) will be critical for emerging market economies, it is unclear whether integrated WiMAX will be chosen over current WiFi solutions.
The Yankee Group concluded that:
- WiMAX device markets are critical to overall success of the technology
- Bifurcation between economically emerging and mature markets creates challenges in device technology development
- Challenges further complicated by varied strategies of service providers and regulatory and commercial uncertainties
- WiMAX devices disintermediate traditional telecom service provider business models and low barriers to new market entrants
- A variety of competing solutions challenge and creates a need for accelerated development of WiMAX technology
- This also demands additional 802.16.2005 profiles that embrace alternative frequency bands, channelization and both TDD and FDD allocations
- By enabling the convergence between media communications and the Internet, WiMAX is a catalyst for enabling the proliferation of the “Anywhere Network”
This author is still waiting for the WiMAX enabled tablet PC shown by Intel at the WCA Symposium earlier this year. He is skeptical about WiMAX replacing WiFi in CE devices as the latter technology has become so deeply entrenched and continues to ride the downward slope of the cost curve. He believes that breakthroughs in WiMAX enabled CE devices will be needed to replace WiFi.
For general WiMAX market thoughts, please see Opinion at the very end of this article.
In other WiMAX related developments:
Mobile WiMAX certification (by the WiMAX Forum) is pending, operators are interested in the performance of Mobile WiMAX in the real world.as well as business models and opportunities. While Mobile WiMAX products may not be certified yet, the market momentum is just too big to be ignored. At the 3GSM Conference in Barcelona:
- Vodafone CEO Arun Sarin stated: “LTE (Long Term Evolution) is still at the standards stage, while WiMAX is a commercial reality…many have used the IEEE to push forward an accelerated rollout of WiMAX, and our industry risks being marginalized if you don’t react to the future needs of operators.”
- With a focus on mobile WiMAX and personal broadband, recently announced deals and deployments include: Altech (South Africa), EMAX (Peru), Iberbanda (Spain), Telmex (Chile) and Wateen (Pakistan).
- Sprint brought its ecosystem partners to the show in order to highlight the potential of the technology – though their booth demos were powered by WiFi.
But the tough work required to make WiMAX a success still lies ahead. Expectations have been set about WiMAX network performance, the ecosystem and business opportunities. To drive the success of the market, vendors will need to support these expectations. According to Peter Jarich of Current Analysis, this support will be driven from three fronts:
- Focus. No company will be successful with WiMAX if they treat it as an afterthought. Solution development isn’t easy. Developing the requisite WiMAX sales channels and distribution partnerships isn’t easy. Neither is building a complete understanding of operator’s demands…and the right way to fulfill them. “Fast followers” and vendors who simply see WiMAX as another tool in their portfolio won’t be able to fully support operators or drive the market.”
- Deployment Expertise. Today, some vendors seem to be treating initial WiMAX deals as little more than a conduit for marketing. And, to be fair, they are important; they highlight who has equipment available and who has momentum…all while building the market mindshare. Yet, deployments are really about something much more important. Initial WiMAX deals provide insights into the business of WiMAX. What works? What doesn’t work? How can an operator make money? What can be reasonably delivered when products are taken out of the lab and put into the field? Even where the technologies are pre-standard or pre-certified, experience with portable and mobile broadband (or “personal broadband”, as some like to call it) is critical. With the market caught up in visions of a WiMAX utopia where every consumer electronics device is data-enabled, these deals help to ground expectations, pointing to the value of basic data services in fixed and nomadic applications.
- Technical Capabilities. WiMAX proponents have aggressively sold the merits of the technology. “Mobile WiMAX will deliver data rates beyond the wildest dreams of 3G.” “Leveraging the open standards and economics of WiFi, WiMAX will deliver inexpensive solutions benefiting from interoperability on the network and device fronts.” This is a clearly tall order. It’s an order that can be filled, but only by vendors that have moved just as aggressively on the core technologies that promise to set WiMAX apart and deliver the cost-per-bit efficiencies that everyone likes to talk about. At a minimum this means Wave 2 Mobile WiMAX features like beamforming and MIMO (ideally both combined, if you can make it work). Again, however, technologies confined to the lab are meaningless. Whether the ultimate goal is to sell SISO or MIMO gear, initial plugfest participation is critical for proving synchronization with standards and a larger WiMAX ecosystem.
Opinion: This author is still skeptical that WiMAX will be the huge success many pundits predict. He believes that Fixed and Mobile WiMAX will find a home in the developing world economies where broadband infrastructure is lacking. In developed markets, he sees several nicheWiMAX markets: DSL fill-in, cellular and Metro WiFi backhaul, and (for SPRINT) 3G/4G overlay for video and high speed data services.